Population Projection & Analysis Training Workshop 20th to 24th March 2023

Dear Partners,

Capacity Africa Training Institute is pleased to announce Population Projection & Analysis

Training workshop to be held from 20th to 24th March 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya

Workshop Organizers

Capacity Africa Institute (www.capacityafrica.com) is an organization that was established in 1999 to promote quality capacity building among development professionals and communities in Africa. The organization currently runs training programmes in Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and South Sudan training over three thousand development workers in the last thirteen years. We have collaborated very closely with Action Aid Kenya, Unicef Kenya Country Office, Undp Kenya, Unifem East Africa, Population Services International, World Health Organization, Ministry of Health, Federation of Women Lawyers-FIDA, Amref, National Council for Population and Development, Nation Media Group ,Shell Kenya and Shell International, Path, Techno serve, One Love One World, National Aids Control Council, Center for British Teachers, JRS Sudan, Christian Mission Aid, Sudanese Red Cross, Mercy Corps International, Tear Fund, Oxfam GB, Haki Kazi, ADRA South Sudan Sector Programme among others.


A modern society faces two alternatives with regards to its population trend. It can either grow or age. A population which chooses not to grow any more or which chooses to shrink will necessarily age. And because of the impossibility of all populations in all countries growing forever, it is likely that every country will face this ageing process at some point in time. Because of this and the importance of economic growth for the well-being of a society, the relationship between an ageing population and economic growth will be relevant for each country. It is already an important and much discussed matter for many.

The substantial changes forecasted for the demographic structure of many countries over coming decades have led to substantial research activity aiming to analyses and quantify the effects of these changes on a nation’s economic performance from the perspectives of population policy and project. A change in population size and population growth rate can affect both the demand and supply side of an economy. The extent of the effects, however, is not clear. The structure of a population for example, regarding distribution of age or gender may also influence the economic performance of a society. The reason why age structure should be taken into account when analyzing economic issues is aligned with the fact or in some fields conjecture those certain behaviors relating to consumption, employment, productivity, depend on a person’s age. For example, if an older individual is less productive than a younger person, one could assume that, on an aggregate level, the older individuals a society possesses, the less productive. It is, even a constant population size does not necessarily mean that the size of the workforce remains constant if the structure of the population is subject to changes. All these are the variables that are discussed in this course by using practical examples from different success stories of, projection and policy around the world.

Training Objectives

This is a five-day course primarily targets the audience ranging from Population policymakers, Development Planners, Economists, Devolved Government Leaderships, Public Sector Policy Leaders, Academic Researchers, Diplomatic Community, Entrepreneurs, Corporate Leaders, religious Leaders, Insurance Policy Technocrats, Social Policy Administrators, Humanitarian Workers, and Donor Fund Managers. The course intents to enable these respective professionals to achieve the following objectives.

  1. Outline the past changes in population growth and future population Projections.

  2. Describe key terms to understand the population and demographic studies.

  3. Describe demographic theoretical models of population change and provide key case studies.

  4. Describe the impact of population change on Education, Health, Food and water, Economic growth

  5. Explain the controversy around reproductive policies

  6. Use Continuous probability and other descriptive Statistical Models to carry out projects for population Policy

  7. Demystify Demographic Ageing, Intergenerational Solidarity and Related Policy Measures

  8. Discuss Migration and Population Policy with focus on the developing world

  9. Application of Geospatial and socio-spatial Technologies in Population projections

  10. Empirical and Cases studies of Successful, National Population Policies


  1. Changes in population growth and future population Projections; what are population projections? Total fertility rate (TFR), major trends in population growth, Large Variations in Growth Patterns across Regions and Countries, Main Factors Driving Population Growth, Changing Demographics and Economic Growth, Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy, where has population growth been most rapid? Demographic Transition? What are Population Pyramids?

  2. Key terms to understand the population and demographic studies; Population dynamics, Population Pyramids? Fertility Intentions, Small Populations and Genetic Drift, Effective Population Size, Meta -populations and Fragmentation, Population Policy Acceptance, Welfare, and Population-related Policies, population momentum, Birth Spacing, and Demographic Dividend.

  3. Demographic theoretical models of population change; Endogenous population model, silver growth model, the Lucas Model, the Solow Model, exogenous population model, the Economic Growth Model, Models with effect scales, Models without effect scales, Models without scale effects, Golden Consumption Model,

  4. Impact of Population change on Education, Health, Food and water, Economic growth; population policy and education, population policy and health infrastructure, population policy, population policy, and agriculture, population policy and water economies

  5. The controversy around Reproduction health and population Policies; Fertility Intentions, Fertility Preferences, and Expectations, the Influence of Education and Family Policies, From Transition Theory to Advocacy of Family Planning Programs, Fears of Famine, Failure, and a Population Bomb, Questions of Coercion, Reproductive Health and Reproductive Rights, Africa, and the AIDS Crisis, Government fertility and family planning policies, Government policies and related responses, The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility

  6. Probability and Statistical Models of Population data Modeling and Population Policy; Population Modeling to Extrapolate Impacts on Population Dynamics, Stochasticity model, Matrix Models, Brass log-if life-fable system, Nuptiality models, Modeling and forecasting populations by time series, The application of ARIMA model in forecasting population data.

  7. Demographic Ageing, Intergenerational Solidarity and Related Policy Measures; Demography and policy analysis, Population Aging and Its Macroeconomic implications, The Dynamics of Population

Aging, Demographic forecasting of population aging, Exploring Determinants of Population Ageing, the fiscal impact of population aging, General Theory of Population Ageing, Two solutions to the challenges of population aging.

  1. Migration and Population Policy; Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios, Migration as a Means of Population Control, Migration Policy, African Population Growth, Immigration Policy, and Foreign Population, Interrelations between Public Policies and Migration, Data on urbanization and migration, Demographic Objectives in Migration Policy, Migration, Development and Environment, The Future of Migration, Population Policies, Migration and Refugees, Migration, Mortality, and Fertility.

  2. Geo-spatial and socio-spatial Technologies in Population projections; geospatial methods for population estimation, Merging population statistics and geospatial information, Ways to Study Demographics with Web GIS, Geospatial Data in Population Planning and Policy Management, Population Mapping and Geographic Information Systems, Population Surveillance – Mapping, Society, and Technology.

  3. Empirical and Cases studies of Successful Population Policies; Taiwan and Family Planning Policies, China and one-child policy, Iran and condom use policy, India and national family planning programs, Italy and abortion on request policy.


At the end of the five days, the participants will:

  1. Be able to outline the past challenges in population growth and make appraisals on future trends in population projections.

  2. Identify key terms and demonstrate a deeper understanding of the wider demographic trends globally and those specific to Ethiopia.

  3. Be able to demonstrate a clear understanding of major theories of population changes and be able


Mr. Caleb Ongong’a is currently a PhD candidate in Demography and Research at the University of Nairobi (UoN) and has over 16 years of professional experience in social science research, population modeling, and designs of baseline, monitoring and evaluation studies, Data Quality Assessment and Analytics (DQAA) and Report Writing. He is passionate about ensuring that development projects achieve intended impacts, through the development and use of public participation and Social Impact Assessment (SIA), strategies. An ardent follower and a student of CoP-MfDR-Africa, a network that promotes knowledge exchange on how to manage development results. He is a visiting associate at Capacity Africa Institute.

Dr. Zena Lyaga: Is a Ph.D. holder in population studies from the University of Nairobi. She is currently a faculty member at Capacity Africa Institute in the areas of Population analysis and policy, Health, Food and nutrition security, livelihood, DRR, resilience and climate Change Adaptation, Water Sanitation and Hygiene, and gender.

Training Participation Fee. Kshs 75,000/ USD 750

Training Package Value for Money. Training will be facilitated by professionals with hands on skills and great wealth of experience. Participants coming from outside NAIROBI are requested to organize their own accommodation and transport. We can however reserve accommodation space for you at the training venue.

Kindly confirm your participation with:

Monica Musumba.

Training Coordinator

Capacity Africa Institute

Muthaiga Centre 4th Flr,

Limuru Rd, Nairobi-Kenya

Tel: +254 723803505

Email:[email protected]

Website: www.capacityafrica.com